About Heater
Heater exists because betting research had two bad options: spend half the evening across Statcast, park factors, weather, and lineup news for a single bet — or skip it and bet the name on the jersey. Heater does the digging and the math, and shows its work.
From finance to the betting market
Rich spent his career in finance and fintech — payroll, payments, and go-to-market for B2B financial products — with a JD from the University of Richmond School of Law. What struck him about betting markets is that they work exactly like the markets he came from: a line is just a price, a price implies a probability, and the only durable edge is finding the gap between the market's number and a better one. Wall Street calls that valuation; bettors call it beating the closing line. Same discipline, same math.
That discipline is Heater's entire method: convert the book's price to a probability, build an independent number from the data, size the gap — and pass when there isn't one. No hunches, no locks, no chasing.
A bettor, not a tout
No picks-sold-separately and no "trust us": every 60%+ confidence pick is logged, dated, and graded publicly — losses included. The model changed on July 1, 2026, so the public record starts there.
How the model works
Purpose-built models per bet type — first-inning (NRFI), first-five, totals, run line, strikeout and home run props, football spreads and totals — each built on the same discipline: convert the book's price to a probability, build our own number from the data, and only bet the gap. Game-level calls are stress-tested by running 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of each game from the model's projected distributions — the analysis reports how often each side actually wins, covers, or goes over across those simulated games. When there's no gap, Heater says pass.
Try it free · Pricing · Track record
Data-driven analysis, not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.